The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently released new projections for the economies of sub-Saharan Africa.
These projections are subject to change depending on various factors, such as global economic conditions and political developments. However, one thing is for certain, the sub-Saharan African economies are ones to watch and will continue to grow in the coming years.
Here are the top 5 economies to watch in the region, according to the IMF:
Angola – Angola is set to reclaim its spot as the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to a return to growth linked to higher oil prices. Angola is the continent’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria, and is also a significant producer of rough diamonds. The IMF expects Angola’s GDP to expand by 8.6% this year, reaching $135 billion. This is a significant increase from previous years, and Angola’s economy will likely continue to grow in the coming years.
Ethiopia – Ethiopia is set to replace Kenya as the fourth-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the IMF. This is due to the easing of armed conflict in the nation and the continuation of ambitious economic reform efforts aimed at opening up one of Africa’s fastest-growing but most closed economies. The IMF predicts Ethiopia’s GDP will reach $126.2 billion this year, expanding by 13.5%. This is an impressive figure, and Ethiopia’s economy will likely continue to grow in the coming years.
Nigeria – As the largest economy on the continent, Nigeria maintains its top spot in sub-Saharan Africa’s economic rankings. The IMF predicts that Nigeria’s GDP will hit $574 billion this year. This is an impressive figure, and Nigeria’s economy will likely continue to grow in the coming years.
South Africa – The IMF predicts that South Africa will retain its position as the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, with a GDP of $422 billion this year. This is an impressive figure, and South Africa’s economy will likely continue to grow in the coming years.
Kenya – According to the IMF, Kenya’s GDP is projected to record a slower growth of 2.4% this year due to the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, drought, election jitters, and disruption of global supply chains. The IMF predicts that Kenya’s GDP will reach $117.6 billion this year, behind Angola and Ethiopia. Despite this slower growth, Kenya’s economy is still one of the top economies to watch in the region.
According to the inaugural edition of the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) Macroeconomics Performance and Outlook Report for January 2023, Africa’s GDP growth is projected to average about 4% in 2023 and 2024, higher than the projected world averages of 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively.
Nonetheless, the AfDB did admit that the subject is highly nuanced and the data in the bi-annual report would be updated as conditions surrounding macroeconomic performances evolve.
The AfDB’s report reads “Global macroeconomic conditions have recently become increasingly uncertain with the persistence of multiple shocks that make policymaking and investment decisions very challenging. The highly volatile external environment has spilt over to the African continent, threatening to halt the gradual recovery from the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic and persistent nature of global shocks and their interaction with prevailing pockets of domestic and regional risks require regular diagnosis and targeted policy actions to address their impact on African economies.”
In the report, the AfDB detailed the economic growth performance and outlook of the 5 African regions, and subsequently every country on the continent.
According to the report, North Africa is expected to be stable, at 4.3% from 2022 to 2023. West Africa’s economic growth projection increased from 3.6% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023. East Africa is projected to grow to 5.0% in 2023, from 4.2% in 2022. Central Africa is expected to decline in growth from 4.7% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023. And Southern Africa, much like Central Africa, would also experience a decline in its economic growth from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2023.
